FORMER SENATOR MARK DAYTON'S OFFICE, HOW MAY WE HELP YOU?

If they haven't closed the office again, Dayton's staff should answer the phone that way.

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Lining up to run against Dayton

Sen. Mark Dayton's job is suddenly getting very popular.

On Thursday, Rep. Gil Gutknecht, R-Minn., said that he's considering a run against the Minnesota Democrat in 2006. Gutknecht made the move as his colleague, GOP Rep. Mark Kennedy, continues to ponder his possible candidacy.

With the election more than 21 months away, there's plenty of time for other Republican candidates to surface. Among the names most often discussed: Gov. Tim Pawlenty (who says he's not interested), Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer, former gubernatorial candidate Brian Sullivan and former Rep. Vin Weber.

Even without an announced opponent, there are signs that Dayton is facing a political challenge in 2006.

Of the 18 Democratic Senate incumbents whose terms expire at the end of next year, Dayton is considered the weakest, and his race is the only Democratic contest ranked as a toss-up, according to the Cook Political Report, which handicaps congressional races.

"I think almost anybody can make a race against Dayton," said Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate races for the Cook report. "He's got his share of issues, not the least of which is money."

Dayton, a multimillionaire, financed his own campaign in 2000 but is raising money from donors this time. He collected $1.3 million last year and said a lack of money won't be an issue in 2006.

Dayton is predicting a brutal campaign, saying Republicans -- including third-party groups -- will spend $30 million to $40 million in an attempt to win his seat. And he expects the contest to take on a national profile, much like the South Dakota contest last year that resulted in defeat for the Democratic Senate leader Tom Daschle.

"I wouldn't go into this if I didn't know that I have to raise a lot of money, and I will raise whatever amount of money I need to win," Dayton said.

As he begins his fifth year in the Senate, Dayton is a marked man on Capitol Hill, with his opponents watching his every move.

James Dobson, the evangelical leader who urged millions of his Christian followers to vote for President Bush last year, issued a warning to Dayton earlier this month. He said that if Dayton doesn't vote for the president's Supreme Court picks and other judicial nominees, he will be in the "bull's-eye" when he tries to win a second term next year.

And as a "public service," the conservative Washington Times editorial page promised to scrutinize and publicize Dayton's votes on judges and other "pivotal issues," saying widespread exposure of Daschle's record helped topple him.

Dayton said Dobson and other conservatives are "trying to bully and bulldoze anybody who opposes their agenda." He said it's natural that Republicans would target his race because with a 55-45 majority in the Senate, Republicans need only five more seats to render Democrats powerless.

With 60 votes, Republicans would have enough votes to stop Democratic filibusters, eliminating their most potent legislative weapon.

"This is a takeover of the federal government, and not just by the Republican Party," said Dayton. "This is an extremist social agenda that is far beyond anything that we've seen in this country in my political and public lifetime."

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, described Dayton as "highly vulnerable" to defeat. He said Dayton hurt himself politically by closing his Washington office last year when he feared a possible strike by terrorists.

"I think he's developing something of a reputation for eccentricity," added Duffy, referrrng to the office-closing. Republicans are ready to use the issue against Dayton.

'Didn't sit well'

"A lot of folks are focusing on him ... because he is vulnerable," said Ron Eibensteiner, chairman of the Minnesota Republican Party. "I believe he is very out of step with Minnesota voters. His closing of the office was silly. That's the best way I can describe it. And it didn't sit very well with people in Minnesota."

He said that Dayton's decision amounted to "cutting and running."

Dayton, who defeated Republican Sen. Rod Grams in 2000, said he has no regrets about closing his office because he was only trying to protect his staff. He said he hopes the 2006 campaign is focused on issues, but he expects to get the same treatment as Daschle and former Sen. Max Cleland of Georgia, who was defeated in 2002.

"I saw what they did to Tom Daschle at the end," Dayton said. "They just buried him in sewage. And I saw what they did to my friend, Max Cleland, in 2002 in the last two weeks, where they put a man [Cleland] who lost three limbs in Vietnam up on a television ad with Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden and said, 'Here are three enemies of the people of Georgia.' And they defeated him. So I have no illusions about how vicious and how politically powerful and how well-funded the whole right-wing extremist movement will be and how it will be used against me."

Duffy said she expects Republicans to campaign against Dayton by saying he's been ineffective and has few legislative accomplishments. Dayton replied that if the Senate had passed his proposals, the United States would have a comprehensive prescription-drug plan for senior citizens, more funding for special education and a tax bill "that doesn't give away the future of this country."

Eibsensteiner called Dayton an "inarticulate liberal." He said that while it's never easy to beat an incumbent senator, Republicans believe they have a good chance of picking up Dayton's seat.

"There's absolutely no question that this is going to be a hard-fought race," said Mike Erlandson, chair of the Minnesota DFL Party. He said that Dayton remains as popular in public opinion polls as Pawlenty and that Minnesotans appreciate his independent, straight-shooting style and the fact that "he doesn't talk out of both sides of his mouth."

DFL guess

Erlandson predicted that Dayton will end up running against the biggest Republican name in Minnesota.

"I think he's going to be running against Tim Pawlenty," said Erlandson. "It wouldn't surprise me: This is a guy who was on his way to the press conference to announce he was running for the United States Senate when he got turned in the other direction."

Pawlenty ended up running for governor after the White House asked him not to run for the Senate against the late Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone. Eibensteiner said that rumors about Pawlenty running for the Senate persist because many big-name Washington Republicans would like to see him run.

"I can tell you that people like Karl Rove ... and a number of people in Washington would love to see him run for the Senate because he is such a fine candidate," Eibensteiner said. But he added, "I can tell you unequivocally he's not even going to consider it. He's going to run for reelection as governor."

Pawlenty's spokesman, Brian McClung, said Friday: "Governor Pawlenty is not interested in running for the U.S. Senate. That pretty much says it all." Asked if he'd change his mind if he got another call from the White House, McClung said: "It's hard to speculate."

Regardless of who emerges as his opponent, Dayton said there will be "very clear differences in policies and priorities." And with the governor's office up for grabs next year, along with legislative and state offices, Dayton said he's telling Democrats "we're all going to win together or we're going to all lose together."

"It's going to be a titantic political battle for the future of Minnesota," he said. Source: Star Tribune, January 22, 2005