WHAT WILL KELLY SAY?

Mayor Randy Kelly's announcement could shake-up the race in St. Paul.

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Kelly to make 'major address' on mayoral campaign

St. Paul Mayor Randy Kelly piqued the interest of friends and foes alike on Wednesday, saying he would "make a major address on the status of the St. Paul mayor's race" this afternoon.

Kelly's campaign said he would "offer an assessment of the remainder of the race, the challenges he faces and the odds of his success in the November election."

Kelly's son and campaign manager, Ryan Kelly, was tight-lipped about the nature of the announcement, which will take place at 3:15 p.m. at campaign headquarters in Bandana Square.

Despite being a well-funded incumbent, Kelly has been painted by his campaign more and more as the underdog. But political observers say it would be a mistake to assume that Kelly's lopsided primary loss to former City Council Member Chris Coleman means that will carry over to the general election.

The University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs is tracking the mayoral races in St. Paul and Minneapolis. Director Larry Jacobs posted an online missive Wednesday suggesting that the small voter turnout in St. Paul's primary, about 15 percent, means Kelly can make up a lot of ground between now and the Nov. 8 general election.

In the Sept. 13 primary, Coleman won 52 percent of the votes to Kelly's 27 percent, making Kelly the first sitting mayor in St. Paul to lose a primary election in more than three decades. Coleman and Kelly, as the top two vote-getters, then advanced to the general election.

About three times as many voters are likely to turn out for the November election, Jacobs predicted, particularly because the race has become so competitive and because the Kelly campaign likely will raise at least $1 million.

Jacobs said turnout may reach its highest level in a dozen years. Turnout has been dropping since 1993, when about 43 percent cast ballots. In 1997, about 42 percent of registered voters showed up. And in 2001, about 40 percent turned out. Source: Star Tribune, September 29, 2005

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Anyone have ideas on what Kelly will say?