NEW POLL NUMBERS
The Wall Street Journal has completed a poll on the 2006 gubernatorial election in Minnesota.
Here are my thoughts:
1. Just like in 1998 and 2002, the 2006 race will be a three-way race. There will be an Independence Party candidate who will take votes away from the DFL candidate. Mike Hatch's poll numbers are inflated because the poll did not included an Independence Party candidate.
2. In a poll with three candidates, Mike Hatch's poll numbers will never be as high as his numbers in this poll.
3. When Minnesotans learn more about Hatch's foul-mouthed school-yard bully leadership style, his numbers will go down faster than a round of drinks for Anne and Elizabeth Hatch.
Here are my thoughts:
1. Just like in 1998 and 2002, the 2006 race will be a three-way race. There will be an Independence Party candidate who will take votes away from the DFL candidate. Mike Hatch's poll numbers are inflated because the poll did not included an Independence Party candidate.
2. In a poll with three candidates, Mike Hatch's poll numbers will never be as high as his numbers in this poll.
3. When Minnesotans learn more about Hatch's foul-mouthed school-yard bully leadership style, his numbers will go down faster than a round of drinks for Anne and Elizabeth Hatch.
5 Comments:
"When Minnesotans learn more about Hatch's foul-mouthed school-yard bully leadership style, his numbers will go down faster than a round of drinks for Anne and Elizabeth Hatch."
You gotta put that on a T-Shirt and sell them! I think they'd be a big hit in Chicago.
Hatch's numbers right now are the highest they will ever be. This is seven years of his publicity stunts gone unchecked.
It's a crap poll. It's a Zogby "interactive" poll, meaning that it's in no way scientific, it's litterally whoever goes to the websites.
If you were to believe the web polls Wes Clark has the 2008 nomination locked up because he consistantly is heads and tails above everyone else; but what makes those polls bunk is the fact that Clarkies get emails telling them to go vote in those polls.
Like wise, the internet still has a higher Democratic population than Republican, skewing this poll from the get-go.
Sean
From the "Methodology" section at the WSJ:
"Online polls were conducted by Zogby Interactive, a unit of Zogby International of Utica, N.Y. Zogby has assembled a database of individuals who have registered to take part in online polls through solicitations on the company's Web site as well as other Web sites that span the political spectrum. Individuals who registered were asked to provide personal information such as home state, age and political party to Zogby, which in turn examined that data and contacted individuals by telephone to confirm that it was valid.
"Zogby International telephoned about 2% of respondents who completed the interactive survey to validate their personal data. To solicit participation, Zogby sent emails to individuals who had asked to join its online-polling database, inviting them to complete an interactive poll. Many individuals who have participated in Zogby's telephone surveys also have submitted e-mail addresses so they may take part in online polls.
[snip]
"Margins of error for each candidate vary by state and range between 2.6 and 4.5 percentage points. Margins for specific states are available on the state panels.
"Zogby International President John Zogby says 15% of the company's U.S. database of online-poll participants are "regulars," who take part in half of the interactive polls the company conducts; the balance of the names of respondents in the database change frequently. Likely voters in each of the 25 states followed instructions sent by an e-mail that led them to the survey located on Zogby's secure servers. Those polled were asked unique questions pertaining to the races in their state.
"As is usual in polling, weightings are applied to ensure that the selection of participants accurately reflects characteristics of the voting population, including region, party, age, race, religion and gender.
[snip]
The poll I conducted in summer of 2004 looks close to these numbers. One thing is sure Pawlenty's hard support is much igher than anyone.
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