11 Responses to “5TH CD DEBATE ON MPR AT NOON”

1. RegularDem Says:
   August 24th, 2006 at 10:59 AM

   For those who want to see the latest (legitimate) 5th District Poll, check this link. It shows Ellison at 26%, Erlandson at 24%, Reichgott-Junge at 22%, and Ostrom at 4%.

   It looks like it is wide open at the moment, with lots of people still undecided.

2. RegularDem Says:
   August 24th, 2006 at 11:00 AM

   Sorry, here is the link.

   http://www.mnpublius.com/2006/08/5th_cd_poll_minvolved_has_the.php#more

3. KH Says:
   August 24th, 2006 at 12:44 PM

   I’m confused, where on the link to publius site is the source that makes it legitimate. Any academic or journalist requires a source, so please tell me where this is. Thanks.

4. Average Jayne Says:
   August 24th, 2006 at 12:51 PM

   RegularDem (aka Ellison staffer / volunteer):

   No doubt this ‘poll’ was released in response to Ostrow’s television commercial poking fun at Keith. Ostrow’s ad began airing on the 20th and not much later ‘a poll’ arrives from nowhere showing Keith in the lead and Ostrow at nothing.

   It’s interesting to note that this ‘poll’ arrived out on the blogs and not in the mainstream press.

   I think what this poll may demonstrate is that Ostrow’s ad is hitting home.

5. RegularDem Says:
   August 24th, 2006 at 1:44 PM

   First, Average Jayne, don’t be quite so gullible. Look at any 5th District discussions to see my posts (where I rip Ellison and those that defend him) and then do away with your convoluted Ostrow theory.

   Second, look at campaign finance laws and then you’ll learn why none of the campaigns or legit 3rd party organizations will put their name behind a poll that is being publicly discussed and used.

   What made the recent poll (showing Ember in the lead) so ridiculous is that it showed a very small percentage of undecided voters. Ask anyone with insider knowledge and they will tell you that any legit poll conducted within the last two months shows undecideds in the 30s-40s.

   Second, there is no way a labor union would conduct a poll that shows Ember beating Keith, and then leak it to Ember so that her supporters can use it to try to raise money, like they are doing now. The labor unions HATE Ember. I have spoken with several people who have recently been called by the labor folks to lobby for Keith, and been told, in essence, “it’s ok if you don’t vote for him as long as you DO NOT vote for Ember.”

   I cannot attribute the MN Publius poll to any specific group or campaign. But I have heard that it’s legit and I know that it seems to coincide with just about every other informal, back door, secret poll that has been conducted, i.e, three way race, Keith with an ever so slight lead, Ostrow a distant fourth, and a whole boatload of undecided voters. In other words, it’s up for grabs. And it doesn’t seem to be weighted so heavily that it looks like a campaign trick.

6. DM Anderson Says:
   August 24th, 2006 at 1:49 PM

   Agreed. If it turns out this poll is bogus, and traces to the Ellison campaign, it could be the biggest kamikaze move of the Ellison campaign to date.

7. Average Jayne Says:
   August 24th, 2006 at 2:20 PM

   RegularDem:

   As you just wrote, “I cannot attribute the MN Publius poll to any specific group or campaign.”

   Thanks so much for discrediting yourself. It’s so nice that you’ve acknowledged passing along unsubstaniated gossip.

8. Average Jayne Says:
   August 24th, 2006 at 2:28 PM

   RegularDem:

   In your initial post you are trying to prove your credibility by writing, “For those who want to see the latest (legitimate) 5th District Poll, check this link. It shows Ellison at 26%, Erlandson at 24%, Reichgott-Junge at 22%, and Ostrom at 4%.”

   Yet as you just wrote, “I cannot attribute the MN Publius poll to any specific group or campaign.”

   You just discredited yourself.

9. RegularDem Says:
   August 24th, 2006 at 3:37 PM

   Average Jayne:

   If you want iron-clad credibility, go to a website where people post using real names. That will get you 1/3 of the way there.

   I don’t really care if you believe me or not. I didn’t post the poll, I just heard that it was actually conducted. For the time being, I suggest that in order to deal with whatever it is about the poll that you dislike so much, you should put your face in your pillow and cry.

10. KH Says:
    August 24th, 2006 at 5:05 PM

    RegularDem, I suggest that you not say a poll is legitimate (in an effort to spread the poll around the blogosphere) and then say I can not attribute the poll…

    I don’t know if you have noticed, but in political races, the MSM and academics (ie Larry Jacobs) always source their poll. And guess what campaigns put out press releases based on their poll results. That’s called earned media. Go take a class at the U and St. Thomas and learn how political science operates.

11. Roving Reporter Says:
    August 24th, 2006 at 5:53 PM

    The poll is bogus…my sources (legitimate) (just kidding) say Ellison is tanking.

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