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QUESTION: WILL FRANKEN FALL BELOW 90 PERCENT IN THE DFL PRIMARY ELECTION ON TUESDAY?
By Michael B. Brodkorb | September 5, 2008
Team Franken and his campaign have made much about the fact that they don’t believe Priscilla Lord Faris is a credible challenger to both Franken and U.S. Senator Norm Coleman in November. Team Franken has been so confident (arrogant and demeaning some would suggest) that they have ignored Lord Faris’ candidacy by refusing to debate.
It’s fair to write that Team Franken doesn’t seem worried about her impact in the upcoming DFL primary election. Given this strategy, it’s clear that Team Franken is confident they will overwhelmingly beat Faris.
Franken has already spent $10 million and has access to millions more in coordinated DFL voter outreach. Include DSCC television commercials and third party messages and Franken’s enormous resource advantage over Lord Faris should easily put him into the 90 percent range in the primary. In 2002, U.S. Senator Paul Wellstone received over 90 percent of the vote in the primary versus two low-tier candidates.
Finally, let’s not forget that Franken has been a candidate for almost two years and has name ID that rivals an incumbent U.S. Senator.
It should be an interesting primary on Tuesday.
Topics: Uncategorized |
September 5th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Michael, you’ve been arrogant and demeaning in your lack of coverage of Jack Shepard’s primary challenge of Norm Coleman. You treat him almost like he’s not a legitimate candidate.
See what I did there?
September 5th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
In 2002, Paul Wellstone beat current senate candidates Alve Erickson and Dick Franson handily. I will say without a shadow of a doubt that neither of them gains markedly from their 2002 results.
Will Prissy get some democratic protest votes? Sure. Will bored republicans cross over to vote for Prissy. Absolutely.
But the last time I checked, it was the result of the general election that counts. And once all the Prissy fans take a step back, and see how little Norm Coleman has actually done for this state, I think it will be easy to see why it is that Amy Klobuchar will ring in the new year as Minnesota’s senior Senator.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
I wonder how many DFLers are gonna take El Druggo’s “Operation Chaos” advice and vote GOPer for Sheppard?
September 5th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
Jeff,
Jack Shepard isn’t a legitimate candidate. In fact, he’s not even allowed in the country.
Still, even if he pulls in the 80 percent-range, it’s true that Lord Farris’ candidacy didn’t mean much.
Norm will clean his clock in the general though, and then Franken’s Minnesota vacation will be over, and he can go home.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
I don’t understand what you’re getting at here. Why 90 percent? If Franken wins the primary, he wins and is the candidate.
Bush won by how much last time? 2%? Would that make his presidency less relevant to Americans? Of course not. If he wins, he wins. There’s no magic number to make a candidate legit, especially one created on a partisan blog.
September 5th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
The republican cross-over could be significant for three reasons:
1) Many republicans, particularly women, respect that Lord Faris stood up for decency when the DFL faded, particularly McCollum and Oberstar. Republicans and independents have not forgotten how demeaning Franken was to women. Al also had a gender problem. He cannot stand accomplished women and that is the basis of the debate position.
2) Lord Faris was against the war from the beginning. Franken and Coleman were not.
3) Lord Faris has a top rating among her peers and is respected. Other than the simple fact that Franken bought the DFL off, he has no redeeming qualities. No real backround, demeanor is faulty, running for the senate for the wrong reason: personal vanity.
September 5th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
I just love how MBB has gone from Faris is a serious contender to “can she muster 10%?”
September 5th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Franken will win the primary. But he will be buried in the general by Norm. Franken’s rhetoric, actions, attitudes and lack of Minnesota values will knock him out. When people, even thgose on the Iron Range look and examine their values they realize that they are of a conservative mind-set; not DFL, liberal life obliterating, kill the unborn at any time, funding abortion, in effective public [gov't run] schools teaching liberalism, homo sexuality and anti family values. The gov’t and its programs are not the answer, but the DFL enjoys giving away hard earned income to those without, supporting generational dependence on gov’t programs, calling this “entitlements” rather than its real name welfare. We do not need a larger welfare state, but if FRANKEN and the DFL gain more this is what we will get, and if they are voted in, than I guess that this is what we also deserve. As a lifelong Minnesotan I know that I can not survive a DFL win in this state, unless I ascede to the social welfare programs that they promulgulate and join in their hand outs.
September 5th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Easy, folks. Mikey’s just trying to earn his paycheck from Prissy.
September 5th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
I like how Bill is apparently showing off for his creative fiction writing class.
1) Franken didn’t debate Prissy because there was nothing to debate. To the letter, her positions EAACTLY MIRROR Al Franken’s positions on EVERY ISSUE. She has staked out positions on like three issues, and with each one, she is the same as Al Franken. So, the debate would melt down to Prissy whining about how she is not Al Franken, and Franken taking the credit he deserves for ALL of her political positions.
2) Faris was against the war from the beginning? How? Did the Sunfish Lake City Council take a roll call vote on the war? Did she make her opinion known to anyone outside her immediate family in Oct. 2002? This is just funny.
3) Faris ranking among her peers? What is this, some new widget on Facebook? 83 percent of her friends like her? Franken DID buy off the DFL. He spent the better part of the past three years attending fund raisers for state house and senate candidates statewide, helping them win their elections and take back the house. There are a lot of legislators who owe a great debt of gratitude to Al Franken. And while he was doing this, Prissy was sending Al campaign contributions.
September 5th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
…and primary voters are much different than general election voters. It is such a silly post. That, and Franken has a lot more competition than Coleman has: it’s not just PLF. I’m guessing that MBB is just trying to see if this stupid story would stick.
September 5th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
The flaws in Franken’s candidacy are without question. Maybe Lord Faris is the only chance for the dems to beat Coleman. Whatever, it is just hard to imagine how Franken can be anyone’s favorite. He really is completely unacceptable to almost everyone with standards.
September 5th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
Bill-
If that is the case, aren’t you also slamming Norm pretty hard, as they are currently tied in the polls?
September 5th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
the third place DFL finisher will have more votes then Sheppard, and of course Coleman will get over 90%
The over under for Franken should be about 72, I’ll take the under
September 5th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
Leroy,
Franken can’t get 20% of his base, mostly women. He has a lid that won’t move because of the behavior issues. Many will go to Barkley before Coleman. When someone has a severe problem with a candidate like Franken, they will not hold their nose and vote. Franken has too many of those. That is why I see him as permanently flawed to too many dems and why he cannot win.
September 5th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
bill has it right–barkley will probably get 5-10% of vote in general and most of that will be from franken. both challengers are contending norm is failing; thus, they will split the failing vote.
September 5th, 2008 at 10:02 pm
I think Barkley does better than 10%, maybe 15 to 20%. Mostly from the DFLers unhappy with angry Al. Norm will win with a purality or slightly over 50%.
September 5th, 2008 at 10:51 pm
I think Al Franken takes down 93% of the total vote in the general election.
(I wanted to get in on the baseless speculation game y’all are playing)
September 5th, 2008 at 11:05 pm
whats baseless about assuming a guy that doesn’t pay taxes will have trouble getting 3 quarters of the vote.
If a guy that doesn’t pay taxes gets even 2 thirds of the DFL primary vote that tells me everything I need to know about where the DFL is today.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
Jack Uldrich or Dean Barkley are looking at 5-10% tops if they go against any DFL candidate that pays his or her taxes. However against a candidate that doesn’t pay his taxes the sky’s the limit. Al franken was tied in the polls against a very much disliked Jesse Ventura. It would of course be difficult for Uldrich or Barkley to get to that level in such a short time frame, but that should tell you the direction Al is headed.
If Norm keeps his head above the 40% mark he has nothing to worry about but if the winnable alternitive comes from outside the DFL the motivation for Republicans to reward the liberal Coleman may not be there.
If Uldrich is polling above 15% before the final debate things will get crazy.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
Which candidate hasn’t paid all of his taxes?
Does Norm have a secret he wants to share?
September 5th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
No, Leroy, Norm doesn’t pay rent. Or utilities. He lets his lobbyist cronies pay it for him. The only person Norm pays is Brodkorb.
September 5th, 2008 at 11:33 pm
Those are some pretty marvelous fairy tales you believe in, George.
In all seriousness though, Leroy’s probably right. As far as we know Al Franken has, by now, paid his taxes.
September 6th, 2008 at 12:24 am
Franken will come in right around 70%. The only way the Primary will become a story is if he only wins by 2-3%, which will not happen.
September 6th, 2008 at 2:38 am
SIMILAR QUESTION; DIFFERENT PERCENTAGE: WILL FRANKEN FALL BELOW 50 PERCENT IN THE DFL PRIMARY ELECTION ON TUESDAY?
September 6th, 2008 at 5:09 am
Jack Sheppard isn’t a credible threat to Norm Coleman. He is a fugitive from justice. Certain liberal/progressive democrats suggested a “crossover” vote for Sheppard but this is one less vote for Angry Al.
Beyond that, on my sample ballot (for perusal below) the partisan race is pretty dull. Keith X Hakeem (or whatever Kieth Ellison calls himself nowadays) has an opponent, while the the Republican nominee Barb White is unopposed.
This is a link to my district, the Longfellow neighborhood of Minneapolis but the state and national offices would be the same throughout MN. I’m sure good conservatives are open minded enough to vote for a democrat under the right conditions.
Check out the sample ballot link.
http://www16.co.hennepin.mn.us/voterinfo/ballot.pdf?id=hc_elec_ballot010009000009&munic_nm=Minneapolis%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20&w=0009&p=000009
September 6th, 2008 at 8:20 am
The only real action is the Franken-Lord Faris race. It has national implications. If Franken’s vote is poor, even if he wins, the national boys will pull financial support from Al for the general and move it to more viable campaigns. The plug will be pulled so Norm voters have a great incentive to cross over and vote Lord Faris
Why not “shock the world” again.
September 6th, 2008 at 9:40 am
In a primary, you cannot ‘crossover’.
Wellstone a sitting United States Senator would be better compared to Norm Coleman’s take. Will he get at least 90%.
If you want to make it analogous, find a challenger that has run commercials and a leading candidate that has taken as many shots as Franken and didn’t drop out.
September 6th, 2008 at 11:10 am
[...] This post is copied verbatim from a post on MDE only with “Team Franken” swapped out for “Team Coleman.” It is meant to [...]
September 6th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
“In a primary, you cannot ‘crossover’.”
Like hell you can’t. The party you’re registered affiliated with has no bearing whatsoever on which primary you cast a ballot in.
I’ll enjoy casting my ballot for Lord Farris. You gonna try to stop me, Ziggy d.s.?
September 6th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Bill-
While I appreciate new voices in politics, perhaps you would be better served to watch an election or two before coming up with grandiose statements that have no tether to history or reality.
Despite all the republicans (and Prissy) have thrown at him, Al continues to climb in the polls, and this shows in his fund raising. A lesser candidate would have dropped out months ago. Al has shown the national democrats that he has what it takes to win, and with Norm now starting to slip, I don’t think anyone is going to back down on this race just because Prissy gets a few republican votes.
September 6th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
My next door neighbor (republican donor/supporter) told me he got a call yesterday urging his vote for Lord Faris. I do not know how organized this might be but something may be going on here.
Leroy, as to fundraising, I think Al has less than half the on-hand cash that Norm does and that his fundraising has had the highest overhead of any senate candidate in the nation.
I think Al is actually hiding from the press and the scrutiny. He ought to take himself out of his own commercials. Really looks out of place. He isn’t genuine.
September 6th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
“DJZ Says: In a primary, you cannot ‘crossover’.”
In Minnesota there is no “registration” of party affiliation. To use my sample ballot linked in comment #26 on the “partisan” first part you can only vote in one party, for example Lord Faris and if in the 5th district, the Dem that Ellison is running against.
Again, you are not asked about party affiliation when you receive your ballot and the balloting is secret. The liberal/progressive/democratic bloggers speculated at voting for Jack Shepard when it looked like “Angry Al” would be running without significant opposition.
Turnabout is fair plat
September 6th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
Greg is right.
Anyone can vote in any party primary but you can only vote in one primary. If you are against Al Franken, Lord Faris is your choice and anyone can vote that way regardless of your past voting history. No one knows which party you vote in. No records are kept.
September 6th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Leroy,
Did you know any of this?
September 6th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Leroy,
This is for you.
http://www.looktruenorth.com/elections/2008-us-senate-race/123-2008-us-senate/4612-video-al-franken-is-not-this-person.html
September 6th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Bill-
Of course Norm has more cash on hand. He has been raising cash for six years. That is the primary perk of incumbency. But when you look at the margins, you will see that the cash on hand advantage is shrinking as Al’s fund raising grows, and more and more people abandon Norm.
THIS is why Minnesotans love Al. He has taken the benefit of incumbency away from Norm by raising cash like he has. And so in the final few weeks when the battle intensifies, Al will have swelling support and plenty of cash on his side while Norm will have a bunch of attack ads and no record of accomplishment on which to campaign.
I’m really starting to like Al’s odds.
September 6th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
Leroy,
You are good. Best spinner on this site for sure.
Give me any odds on Al vs. PLF?
September 6th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Over/Under Al winning: 100%
I take the over.
Other than that, nothing else matters. If you think this isn’t true, ask anyone who the two people were who ran against Wellstone in the last primary. One is easy, one, not as easy. I give mad props to anyone who can recite the names without use of the internet (or referring back to the second post on this thread).
September 6th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
Just saw Al and PLF on wcco news. Al tried humor and it didn’t work. He is painful to watch.
She may not win but she has certainly has a lot of class.
I can see the republican crossover as being substantial based on the way she handles herself.
September 6th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Franken is going to win the primary, no doubt there. Franken is going to lose the general, no doubt there either.
Leroy, you presume that voters even take the time to think (reference to your first comment). If voters thought, they’d realize that the economy was avoided by the republicans at the convention, that there’s no hope in the GOP, that drilling solves nothing (and that the people promoting drilling are the ones getting rich off of oil already!), and they’d look for alternatives. Instead, they cheer and wave “Drill, baby, drill” signs, and put bumper stickers saying “Drill here, drill now, pay less”. They vote for republicans.
Conclusion- voters are morons.
September 6th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
“drilling solves nothing”
Doing nothing also solves nothing. Do you know what else does nothing? “Solutions” that cannot generate even 20 percent of our energy needs.
The Democrat’s response to the energy crisis is two-fold 1) Our current standard of living is too high, and must be lowered; and 2) Our cost of living is too low, and must be increased.
Have no doubts, the “change” Democrats want us to vote for is a return to the 1930s, with all it’s socialism and Big Depression glory.
September 6th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
“drilling solves nothing”
Doing nothing also solves nothing. Do you know what else does nothing? “Solutions” that cannot generate even 20 percent of our energy needs.
The Democrat’s response to the energy crisis is two-fold 1) Our current standard of living is too high, and must be lowered; and 2) Our cost of living is too low, and must be increased.
Have no doubts, the “change” Democrats want us to vote for is a return to the 1930s, with all it’s socialism and Great Depression glory.
September 6th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
bill, you are correct. we need our own operation chaos to get lord faris about 40% of the vote.
September 6th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
I said you cannot crossover because once you vote on the Dfl side, you cannot go to the other side and vote for you favorite Republican. So, if you cast for PLF and live in the Fifth, you cannot them vote for White for 5thCD member.
it doesn’t matter, if you do it, your ballot will be spoiled.
September 6th, 2008 at 10:38 pm
Oh why didn’t you just tell us you don’t know what the term “crossover” means? It would save us a lot of time.
September 7th, 2008 at 1:37 am
DJZ say that if you vote for Lord Faris you can’t “cross over and vote Barbara Davis White. This is true but if DJZ actually looks at the ballot (see link below) Barb Davis White is running unopposed on the Republican side. The only possible way for BDW to lose the republican slot would be a massive write in campaign but that would mean that the write-in voters could not vote for Angy Al or Lord Faris.
http://www16.co.hennepin.mn.us/voterinfo/ballot.pdf?id=hc_elec_ballot010009000009&munic_nm=Minneapolis%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20&w=0009&p=000009
September 7th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Barb Davis White is headed for the most lopsided defeat in congressional history. Why would anyone CARE what happens in the primary?
September 7th, 2008 at 8:16 am
You can no longer “spoil” your ballot. The machines will not allow it. The machines guide you to a proper vote and it will be counted.
I see a republican vote for Lord Faris as “feel good” because even if Al wins the primary I would get two chances to vote against the DFL machine and the worst candidate in history.
September 7th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
“Of course Norm has more cash on hand. He has been raising cash for six years.”
Right; Porn-O-Rama’s rollin’ in cash.
Just ask the poverty striken kids from the Gloria Wise children’s charity who unwittingly gave up their hot lunches to support that wonderful human being and icon of the Democrat party: Al Franken.
September 7th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
“Of course Norm has more cash on hand. He has been raising cash for six years.”
Right; Porn-O-Rama’s rollin’ in cash.
Just ask the poverty striken kids from the Gloria Wise children’s charity who unwittingly gave up their hot lunches to support that wonderful human being and icon of the Democrat party: Al Franken.
September 7th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
I will be voting for Patricia Lord Faris in the Democrat primary, because Minnesota Democrats are just too mentally unstable to be trusted with their own choices for candidate.
It’s for their own good.
September 7th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
Just heard Lord Faris on WCCO radio about an hour ago. She paid respect to former senators from MN, both republican and democrat, by name who had honor and decency and then said that Franken cannot pass even a minimal test. Lots of class–she also took some responsibility for the one ad. No one does that these days. More power to her.
September 7th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
Could we have nominations on the ten most despicable things Franken has done?
My top three:
1) Gloria Wise rip-off.
2) Lie to Minnesotans about when he moved to MN.
3) Audacity to think he could pull this farce off by buying DFL party off.
September 7th, 2008 at 10:33 pm
Greg Lang & DJZ-
There are no write-ins allowed in MN primaries. Barb Davis White is destined to get 100% of the vote no matter what.
September 8th, 2008 at 1:00 am
Dem Dave Says: “There are no write-ins allowed in MN primaries. Barb Davis White is destined to get 100% of the vote no matter what.”
You are correct on no write-in. I guess that increases Barb Davis White chance of winning the primary from 99.999999% to 100%!
Here is a new motto: “Democrat for a Duce” meaning being a democrat for the two minutes spent filling out the primary ballot. With preparation you can hold your breath for as long as it takes to fill out this ballot. I know it’s tough to vote democratic but your only “Dem for a duce”.
You can then tell Liberal/Progressive/Democrats that you are open minded and have, on occassion, voted for a democrat.
September 8th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
Greg Lane-
I agree with you 100%!
I live in the 5th District and I’m gonna cross-over on Tuesday and vote for Lord Faris.
She may not win but it would make Franken look bad is she were to take 30-40% against him.
My job is to make the Democrats look bad. In fact, it should be all of our jobs - on Tuesday September 9th.
September 9th, 2008 at 11:51 pm
[...] was I wrong. I thought it was reasonable to ask if Al Franken would get less than 90 percent in the primary [...]