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STAR TRIBUNE: “MINNESOTA POLL: OBAMA, MCCAIN ARE DEAD EVEN IN STATE”
By Michael B. Brodkorb | September 14, 2008
“Minnesota has become a battleground in a presidential campaign that has dramatically tightened nationwide.
A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows that the race is now a dead heat between Barack Obama and John McCain, each supported by 45 percent of likely voters in the state.
The new poll likely will stoke both sides’ efforts during the final 51 days until the election, triggering a barrage of advertising, grass-roots politicking and, potentially, stepped-up visits by the candidates.
The poll found that McCain has made gains across the board since a May Minnesota Poll that showed him trailing by 13 points. He has picked up considerable support among men and to a lesser degree among women. He also has boosted his standing with whites, young voters and all levels of household income and education.” Source: Star Tribune, September 14, 2008
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44 Responses to “STAR TRIBUNE: “MINNESOTA POLL: OBAMA, MCCAIN ARE DEAD EVEN IN STATE””
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September 14th, 2008 at 9:09 AM
how will the Dems spin this?
This is *not* good news, especially considering the Minnesota Poll tends to favor the Dems….
I sense there is Obama fatigue around the state and country.
September 14th, 2008 at 9:25 AM
[...] Original Michael B. Brodkorb [...]
September 14th, 2008 at 9:25 AM
The Republicans are surging at the right time. Surge, lets hope there are two effective surges this year.
September 14th, 2008 at 9:44 AM
If the dems lose Minnesota, Obama is looking at the worst defeat in presidential history. At least he will win in California and New York. Is it possible for him to have less than 100 electoral votes?
September 14th, 2008 at 10:18 AM
Cash:
If you throw in District of Columbia which always votes Democrat, Illnois which votes Democrat he will break a hundred. Right now if everything went right for Obama he gets 273 electoral votes. I was hoping for something like 285, but at the rate that Obama is going Mccain is heading to an over 300 electoral vote maajority.
The people who should be worried are Franken, Walz, Madia, Tinkleberg, and the DFL state house candidates. These are the people who had already figured that Obama was sweeping in lots of votes to get them easy victories. Instead it looks like Mccain is going to create a net sweep of voters which is bad news. Keep in mind what caused the horrible disaster in 2006 in Minnesota was lack of ethusian for the Repubilicans. That led to Tim’s very narrow win, the blowout that Kennedy had, Walz winning, Bachmann having trouble (that along with all the unfair smears), and the state house disaster where lots of seats were decided by a couple hundred votes or less.
The only that might save Franken if the Survey USA Poll is correct is Barkley. Obama doesn’t have that on the top of the ticket.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
September 14th, 2008 at 10:22 AM
If the Star Tribune says it is a tie, then we know McCain is ahead by 3-4 points. My DFL Range family is actually voting McCain. I thought hell would freeze over before any Ranger would do that.
September 14th, 2008 at 10:54 AM
all my kin in Pipestone is going for McCain — first time they’ve supported a Republican for President….
September 14th, 2008 at 11:59 AM
Really? Only 3-4 points separate the Star Tribune poll from reality? I thought it was more like 10. Even 3-4 points would be a “landslide” for McCain in this state. Until a week ago, I had been hoping for a “reverse coattails” election, in which the effort to throw out those overreaching DFLers in the State House would get enough Republicans into the polls to also pull the lever for Coleman and McCain. Now it looks like the coattails might run both ways.
September 14th, 2008 at 12:31 PM
You have to wonder how much Porn-
O-Rama is helping McCain, and how much of an effect he will have on our legislative elections.
If things continue like this, I’m going to send a big ol’ bouqet of roses to New York to greet Al & Frannie when they get home.
September 14th, 2008 at 12:38 PM
I sincerely doubt Minnesota is “in play” regarding the Presidential race, though this survey is consistent with the nation-wide consensus that McCain now has the lead. It’s clear that Obama’s DNC convention bump was successfully blunted, and the momentum toward McCain has continued.
McCain now leads in every major national poll, and Real Clear Politics gives him the electoral advantage now too. Moreover, the Intrade odds makers now no longer favor Obama to win.
It’s still two months to the election, and a lot can still happen. The debates will present opportunities for both to change or sustain their momentum.
Moreover, if the Obama campaign continues to allow Joe Biden near a microphone, if they continue to flail so badly as they are now, and with the public now “on to”the media’s abject bias for Obama it’s hard to see a many downsides for McCain.
There’s been a stead slide in the number of self-identified Democrats, all the congressional races have tightened… and Tommy and Leroy will probably continue to talk… their small tent is getting smaller…
REAL CHANGE — not phony failed socialist change — is coming to Washington soon.
September 14th, 2008 at 2:23 PM
Hey!
Where are Leroy, Plymouth Dem, El P, and Tommy to provide the Lefty spin? I think this is an excellent moment to insert a complaint about Norm’s $600/month DC flophouse.
September 14th, 2008 at 2:30 PM
Payload: They are all getting drunk in Tommy’s “chenyin’” basement, trying to deal with the harsh reality of the Strib poll…
September 14th, 2008 at 2:41 PM
I agree with chestnut.
When America watches the debates, and sees the crypt keeper mumbling and stumbling his way through his history of senior moments and lies, and at the next podium over sees a candidate who provides a compelling vision for America that is not openly hostile toward the middle class, well, then ask me how I feel.
No president in history has been elected 51 days before a general election by a Minnesota Poll.
September 14th, 2008 at 2:56 PM
Leroy:
I am fairly confident that without helpful editing from the MSM, Palin will trounce Biden in thier debate. Likewise Obama has been ducking any debate with McCain for very good reason.
September 14th, 2008 at 3:25 PM
Payload-
I am confident that Obama and Franken will each win by at least 97 percent.
Look at that statement.
Analyze how stupid it sounds.
Now look in a mirror, and take a look at the only person who ever posted somehing dumber than that on this site.
September 14th, 2008 at 3:39 PM
Yeah the person is Leroy.
What payload was correctly talking about was even before the interview was shown it was said that Palins wanted war with Russia. What happened when we finally got to the interview. If Georgia was part of NATO the treaty obligation was to go to war with Russia if they attacked Georgia.
Or did you miss that Leroy? That is the MSM editing that Payload was referring to.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
September 14th, 2008 at 3:55 PM
Payload, if you think Palin is going to trounce Biden then you are diluted. He joined the Senate when she was EIGHT!!! The fact that she doesn’t even know what the Bush doctrine is and says living by Russia is foreign policy experience is so ridiculous. I think the Palin pick will eventually come back to bite you guys in the ass. Enthusiasm now but when people realize she is a complete dumb ass and knows absolutely nothing about important policy issues, America will see her as what she is, a ploy by the McCain campaign to renergize is boring ass campaign and to attract woman voters, because apparently they are all that dumb. (A good number of woman will vote for McCain solely because of Palin’s gender but not enough to really help McCain.)
Now back to the DFL spin for this poll. Obama’s ground campaign is infitinely better than McCain’s. Many if not most college campuses are being heavily focused and organized. Also, the ground game in individual precincts is going to be massive, with individual campaigns occuring at the precinct level.
At my DFL field organizer training, someone asked what kind of field organization Republicans have. The answer was, well McCain has 60 offices country wide so far and we are going to have 38 here in MN alone.
This is how Obama racked up such huge victories in so many states that Clinton didn’t expect, the ground game was there. This is how the DSCC won so many seats in 2006, valuing field organizing over tv ads to a higher degree.
September 14th, 2008 at 4:27 PM
Andrew:
Just curious what planet are you living on?
If a person is wrong on issues that doesn’t make them right. Bidden for example in the 1980′s opposed the arms buildup that President Reagan did. What brought Russia to it’s knees and no longer made them a threat? The arms buildup. Palins was a kid then so when she studies situations she looks at what works. Bidden looks for what doesn’t work.
You say that Palin is out of touch with issues that Americans care about.
* No earmarks. She wants them stopped.
* No tax increases that can destroy the economy. She won’t support them.
* America needs to drill for more oil and produce more nuclear power. She supports that.
I can go on, but the people out of touch are Obama, Bidden, Franken, Walz, Madia, Tinkleber, DFL state house candidate.
Oh woman will vote for Mccain just because she’s a woman. Are you married? Do you have a girl friend? Boy even if she’s a liberal democrat she should be insulted by that! If she’s not than you’re lucky to have found a stupid woman that thinks you’re great.
In 2006 the Republicans lost because of two things:
* People were fed up without of control spending and the Republicans were punished for behaving like Democrats.
* People were upset with what appeared to be a losing war. You have forgotten that Bush changed the strategy and we’re winning. If we did what you wanted we would’ve ordered the troops out and let Iraq go to hell. Iraq has been put in such good shape as one country (wait a minute I seem to remember that there was a brilliant genius in the Democrat party that thought it should be broken up into three countries that person’s name was Bin Laden. No Bumble head. No, but that’s what Joe Bidden is who proposed that). By the way if you guys had the mandate to stop the war why did you keep funding it for two years?
The war is no longer the winning cause you think it is. To be exact the average American wants the troops to win. They support the troops. You apparently want to support terrorists. Great way to get your message out Andrew.
You know your spin about the ground game. Part of that is true. The Clinton campaign didn’t focus on the caucus states and that is why she lost them big and Obama got his advantage. But come the general election the Mccain campaign is organized.
The difference is the Mccain campaign won’t spend foolishly. Shows just how out of control federal spending will be with Obama. Mccain has 87 county organizations in a state that has 87 counties Andrew.
By the way what you described was Bush’s ground game in 2004. It’s nice to know that Democrats have to copy what worked for Republicans first.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
September 14th, 2008 at 4:31 PM
How come we are not seeing McCain/Palin signs yet? Is the party out of money? I would think they would be up everywhere with this news?
September 14th, 2008 at 4:45 PM
One question to consider. Will Biden even make it to the debate? There is more and more chatter on the democrat’s blogs and the insiders about Biden being thrown under the bus for Hillary.
Of course if Biden is able to stick it out, he will be roasted in the debate by Palin.
Slo Joe “Plugs” Biden has a nasty habit of not knowing when to shut his pie hole. It is a sad disease commonly known as “diarrhea of the mouth”.
September 14th, 2008 at 4:53 PM
Oh Andrew:
Biden was so brilliant he asked for a person in a wheelchair to stand up during a rally. It’s nice to know he’s in touch!
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
September 14th, 2008 at 4:55 PM
You know Michael, if this blog is only about rehashing Strib articles and State party press releases, we can really find that elsewhere. How about some original content?
September 14th, 2008 at 5:22 PM
You know Michael, if this blog is only about rehashing Strib articles and State party press releases, we can really find that elsewhere. How about some original content?
Ya know, Leon, I don’t recall anyone putting a gun to your head. Don’t like it? Leave and don’t let the virtual door hit your on the back end.
September 14th, 2008 at 5:23 PM
Biden was so brilliant he asked for a person in a wheelchair to stand up during a rally. It’s nice to know he’s in touch!
Had McCain done that they’d have called it a “senior moment”. Biden’s almost as old, where’s the MSM mocking him for his insensitivity or forgetfulness?
September 14th, 2008 at 5:27 PM
“… then you are diluted…”
Me fail English? That’s unpossible!”
– Ralph Wiggum
September 14th, 2008 at 5:28 PM
Two things are going against Obama -
One the debates – As Unfair as it may be – Like Biden, he has the problem of being seen as a great speaker.
So if he does great, he meets expectations and no bump – If he stumbles (as he has done in interviews) then the lack of experience comes back to bite him. Dems have been portraying McCain as this feeble, out touch old man. Having seen him speak in person, he comes across as sincere and thoughtful (date I say Presidential) so again, if he does just OK he beats expectations.
Same, but even more so for Biden.
He has to crush Sarah in debates to meet expectations (and if he goes too strong, then it is the old White guy picking on the woman).
Both have a lose-lose problem.
It is why Obama’s campaign is in trouble.
The more negative he and his supporters go, the more the “change” goes away and he looks like any other politician – and then the lack of experience starts making people worry.
That’s why the attacks on Sarah are so great – The more they attack her experience, the more people go – Hey wait, didn’t he have to pick Biden because he had no experience.
Can’t believe Dems were able to snatch defeat from Jaws of victory.
September 14th, 2008 at 5:33 PM
“Payload, if you think Palin is going to trounce Biden then you are [deluded]. He joined the Senate when she was EIGHT!!!”
So now that we know what a non sequitur looks like, lets ask why the “guy with a vision for the future” reached into the depths of the past for a running mate.
Palin is going to kill Biden in the debates, providing he doesn’t plagiarize more of his life story.
“The fact that she doesn’t even know what the Bush doctrine is”
LIE. In fact, Charlie Gibson got it wrong, not the other way around. Nice bullshit talking point, I suppose, though. Palin nailed it in the interview.
“Enthusiasm now but when people realize she is a complete dumb ass …”
That and the rest is a pretty nice re-statement of how Democrats must be feeling with their buyers remorse over Barak — Dumb Ass In Chief — Obama.
Obama knows absolutely nothing about important policy issues, and America is seeing him for the EEOC candidate he is. There’s no good reason to vote for Barak Obama, unless you think “black” is the best qualification for president.
You’re funny Andrew… stupid, but funny.
September 14th, 2008 at 5:52 PM
I might be more dismissive generally of these recent McCain poll wins as just a post-convention bounce if it weren’t for the fact that the momentum started shifting toward McCain before the DNC convention.
Before the DNC convention, polls were already showing fewer “self-identified” Democrats; McCain was already closing the gap; and Obama’s progress had been stagnant for some time.
The Palin pick and the RNC convention gave that momentum a real boost… to the point where McCain leads Obama in all major polls, has a lead in projected electoral votes, and has the Intrade odds makers favoring his victory.
Moreover, Republicans are closing the gap in the “generic” poll of who Americans prefer… Whatever happens November 4, it won’t be a “landslide” for the Democrat party.
September 14th, 2008 at 6:13 PM
I actually thought Leroy’s comment up there was pretty funny. kudos.
September 14th, 2008 at 7:23 PM
Hey Leroy you have a fan!! When did your sister start posting here?
September 14th, 2008 at 7:51 PM
Held the family re-union at our house this summer, the straw poll had McCain winning 30 to 5. I had uncles that never voted for a Republican in their life voting for McCain. My sister who was a delegate to Dems Natl. Convention informed me she was a Dem for McCain. Obama wanted change, and it looks like its happening.
September 14th, 2008 at 8:45 PM
All: My point is that if all we’re going to see here is recylcled Coleman ads and State party releases, we can just log onto the State party web site. I think Michael is so busy with his day job that he’s just phoning it in, posting the work of others.
It’s getting tedious.
September 14th, 2008 at 9:36 PM
The only poll that counts is in November. Don’t get excited yet.
But it is good news for McCain. Look for Obama to spend more time and effort to win here, a state he should have carried easily.
September 14th, 2008 at 9:38 PM
The Czecher Says:
“How come we are not seeing McCain/Palin signs yet? Is the party out of money? I would think they would be up everywhere with this news?”
They just started seeing these in my neighborhood. I have not yet seen a Obama-Biden sign
September 14th, 2008 at 9:41 PM
See the link!. Joe Bidens plane is 3/4 empty. Making kind of a big carbon footprint, dont you think? Maybe he oughta start flying coach, Obama’s gonna need those frequent flyer miles.
September 14th, 2008 at 10:06 PM
“Joe Bidens plane is 3/4 empty. Making kind of a big carbon footprint, dont you think?”
They don’t really believe that bullshit either.
September 14th, 2008 at 11:35 PM
At least Biden needs a plane. McCain seems so worried that Palin will pull a Judi Dutcher, he appears to have harkened back to his childhood in the late 1800′s when women were to be seen, and not heard.
How any self respecting woman can support such a ticket is beyond me.
September 15th, 2008 at 12:26 AM
the great thing about palin is most conservatives wish she was at the top of the ticket. maybe will be in 2012 either by mccain retiring or her winning it on her own. a massive ticket in 2012 would be palin/jindal or vice versa.
the other ironic thing is that although bho has raised a lot of money it now appears mccain will have as much or more than he does because the rnc has 5x the cash balance as dnc. adding to this is that although obama raises a ton of money each month, he is spending 20% of the take for administrative costs, not to mention he looks like a dufus for breaking his word on public financing.
i say the next two weeks decides the election. if mccain can keep building his poll trends, not necessarily by large numbers, but keep trending up, he wins in a landslide. if not, it will be a nailbiter and i would anticipate bho will probably pull it out by a miniscule margin. a hollow victory, but still a victory, as he should have won by 10+ points, but then he has run a terrible campaign.
September 15th, 2008 at 12:41 AM
Dutcher…it was Ass-clown Hatch whose over the top reaction to Dutcher getting a few hits for missing a question that cost old Mikey….
By the way, I am skeptical of the poll, I am pulling the lever for McCain/Palin, but not quite that confident MN is going that way also. Obama loses MN, it will be part of a much bigger McCain landslide… MN loves their taxes/large government to vote GOP.
Lastly, how many ads can MN Teachers’ Union possibly run congratulating themselves on being excited for the new school year. Underpaid teachers should be asking for refunds on their dues…
September 15th, 2008 at 5:29 AM
I, too, would love to see a Palin/Jindahl ticket running against the incumbent ticket of Obama/Biden in four years.
You take Palin’s weakest spot (experience) and you multiply it by two. The fact that Palin is currently second fiddle to Father Time makes her somewhat more palitable this time. Remove him, and you might as well be running Laura Brod and Steve Drazovski.
September 15th, 2008 at 7:19 AM
If you take Palin’s “lack of experience” and multiply by two, you get Barak Obama.
September 15th, 2008 at 8:06 AM
I would like to comment on the supposed superiority of Obama’s “ground game.” I think the GOP of 2006 can attest to the fact that a great ground game cannot get anyone out to vote for someone they do not want to vote for. In fact, and it is more true of Obama today than it was Republicans in ’06, a well-financed ground game and excessive, generally negative advertising actually work AGAINST the party and its candidates. I think “Obama fatigue” has set in, and from here on out every appearance will actually cost him votes.
September 15th, 2008 at 11:15 AM
How would you like to be Norm Coleman about now? The polls show a tightening for McCain yet your campaign loses all of its lead in both polls. Looks like the MDE attack strategy continues to work…. for Franken.
September 15th, 2008 at 11:23 PM
Plymouth:
The difference in the Senate race is simple. There is a candidate on the ballot that gets votes. Norm will eventually get the Republican leaner that say they are voting for Barkley right now.
Norm has been hurt because Franken and the Democrats have been running the nothing, but negative campaign at Coleman. Franken if we was a likeable candidate would have an Amy K lead right now. He doesn’t.
Norm will win a comfortable victory.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN