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COLEMAN CAMPAIGN RELEASES MEMO REFUTING “POLL” FROM STAR TRIBUNE
By Michael B. Brodkorb | October 4, 2008
U.S. Senator Norm Coleman’s campaign has released a memo from their pollster refuting a new “poll” from the Star Tribune showing Al Franken with a nine-point lead over Coleman.
###
Memo
To: Coleman for Senate Supporters
From: Glen Bolger, Partner and Co-Founder, Public Opinion Strategies
Re: Update on the race
By the time you receive this memo, you will likely have read about a new Star Tribune poll that purports to have Al Franken leading Norm Coleman by 9 percentage points.
You will also likely have received news of an earlier poll this week that showed Norm Coleman leading Al Franken by 10 percentage points.
So, which to believe?
First, let me share with you my belief that polls are not about the snapshot in time, but about the consistent pattern of what polls bear out over a period of time.
The reality is that since mid-July there have been 11 public polls conducted on the race for the United States Senate in Minnesota. During that time, all but 3 of those polls have shown Norm Coleman leading Al Franken in the race for the U.S. Senate.
Of the last 5 polls that have been conducted, Norm Coleman has held leads in each and every poll–including the most recent KSTP/SurveyUSA poll that has Norm up by 10 points.
It has not been since August that a single public poll (up until the Star Tribune poll) had Franken leading Norm Coleman.
As a matter of pattern and consistency, the numbers and the polling data over a trendline obviously favor Norm Coleman.
Second, what is wrong with the Star Tribune’s poll?
Other than it is wrong and inaccurate, here are the essential reasons the numbers are flawed, and therefore it’s conclusions are flawed.
Let me walk you through the facts.
In the September edition of the Star Tribune Minnesota “Poll,” Senator Coleman led Al Franken 41% to 37%, with former Senator Barkley pulling up the rear with 13%.
Three short weeks later, Franken pulls ahead with 43%, Senator Coleman at 34% and former Senator Barkley at 18%.
Coincidentally, or not, in this poll not only did Franken’s standing increase by a net of 13 points, the sample saw a net increase 13% for the Democrats.
|
Sample |
9/15/08 |
10/4/08 |
Net Change |
Poll |
9/15/08 |
10/4/08 |
Net Change |
|
|
Republicans |
31% |
26% |
(-5) |
Coleman |
41% |
34% |
(-7) |
|
|
Democrats |
34% |
42% |
(+8) |
Franken |
37% |
43% |
(+6) |
|
|
Independents |
30% |
27% |
(-3) |
Barkley |
13% |
18% |
(+5) |
|
|
GOP/DEM |
(+13) Democrat |
Coleman/Franken |
(+13) Franken |
In other words, the sample methodology used by the Star Tribune skews the results in favor of Al Franken because they significantly, and statistically, oversampled Democrats in their sample size.
The other way of saying this is that these numbers would be accurate if the Star Tribune had done this poll in New York–not in Minnesota!
So, when all is said and done, what does it all mean?
It means this is just another poll in a series of polls. The key to watch for over the course of the next several weeks is the trend, the pattern and the overall averages of the polls that are being conducted.
Based on our own internal polling, as well as the trend averages of public polls over the past month, it is my opinion that we hold a narrow, but statistically significant lead going into the final weeks of the campaign.
This race is by no means over, but, clearly you can feel confident that the Star Tribune poll is an outlier of outliers–and that the overall strength of this campaign is positive, and looking even more positive as we move forward.
Thanks,
Glen Bolger,
Partner and Co-Founder, Public Opinion Strategies
Topics: Uncategorized | 21 Comments »
October 4th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
This is SOP for MDE and the GOP. If your guys are ahead – trumpet the results and the brilliant pollsters. If your guys are behind – the pollsters are wrong and all dolts. Well, I guess that worked in Mark Kennedy’s campaign, oh wait…
October 4th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
Maybe Norm should share his internal daily poll tracking numbers rather than try to explain the published polls. Obviously, he can’t do that if his internals are showing him trailing. In that case, you turn to someone like Glen Bolger (as seen in the above memo)and pay him to spin, spin, spin.
October 4th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Only a crackhead would believe this poll.
October 4th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
ha. So survey USA shows a 10 point swing and that’s fine but the strib shows a similar swing and that’s impossible?
Face it Michael, this race is dead heat.
October 4th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
This is the Strib’s last gasp. A paper that can’t pay their creditors and is losing more than 1% of their subscribers per month over the last 2+ years.
October 4th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Yeah, I remember when Kennedy kept blasting the Minnesota poll in 2006 when it showed him 10-15 points down. I seem to recall him losing by something like 20 points…
October 4th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
PlymouthDem: According to the strib, this race isn’t a dead-heat…Franken has a nine-point lead.
October 4th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
[...] waiting for the Star Tribune to release their poll numbers on the presidential race in Minnesota. Based on a sample methodology that favors Democrats, I would expect the Star Tribune’s poll to show Senator Obama with potentially a twenty-point [...]
October 4th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
We’ll find out out in a month which polls were closer…
October 4th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
The poll sample is bullshit. The Strib should be embarrassed for publishing something so clearly suspect.
October 4th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
***The Strib should be embarrassed for publishing something so clearly suspect.***
Well, what do you expect from republiCon Wall Street bail-out thiefs?
At one time, how many dailies did we have? But you assholes that claim to LOVE “competition” allowed mergers and acquitions to stifle competition.
You can’t listen to FM radio without listening to Clear Channel; we have republiCon “free marketeers” to blame for that. And that’s but one example.
The problem isn’t what assholes like you, Chestnut, say – it’s what you DO.
And usually, it’s the exact opposite of what you preach.
And that’s why reasonable people no longer trust republiCons to tell the truth.
October 4th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Average Joe Says:
October 4th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Only a crackhead would believe this poll.
Hmm! Barak Obama used to smoke crack!
October 4th, 2008 at 11:13 pm
“Well, what do you expect from republiCon Wall Street bail-out thiefs?”
Huh? Democrats drove this thing, dumb ass.
October 4th, 2008 at 11:15 pm
“You can’t listen to FM radio without listening to Clear Channel; we have republiCon “free marketeers” to blame for that. And that’s but one example.”
ALL of the consolidation of media, particularly radio, took place under Clinton.
Again, what the fuck are you talking about dumb ass.
October 4th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
And in conclusion, I’d like to add: Fuck you Tommy, you’re a dumb, lazy, fat fucking dip shit.
October 5th, 2008 at 1:03 am
There’s only one metric that matters here, the incredibly flawed party sampling. 13% of people may wake up and change their minds on who they’re voting for, but no one wakes up and says, “I’m tired of being a Republican…socialism looks like fun, sign me up.”
What a joke. If Bolger says that Norm has a statistically significant lead, you can count on it as reality.
October 5th, 2008 at 10:00 am
What about Barkley?
Will the negative ads turn positive toward election day, and the name calling cease, if Barkley keeps showing an increase in support because he isn’t [lacking funds, perhaps lacking that intent too] into the name-calling advertising approach.
Attrition in the major party camps favors Barkley.
And polls now – are they irrelevant given how much more cash/ads we have before the end of October?
October 5th, 2008 at 1:21 pm
“ALL of the consolidation of media, particularly radio, took place under Clinton.”
ROFLMAO!!!
Yep! No mergers or acquisitions in THIS decade – in your world, which is Planet Denial.
October 5th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
Tommy, dip shit, what major media consolidations have taken place in the last few years? Please expound, you fat, stupid, lazy fucking dip shit.
October 5th, 2008 at 6:40 pm
You guys are aware that your party has been the ones in power for the last 8 years right? Because in the past 8 years, everything about this country has detiorated because of your policies. While you guys have yet to realize this correlation between Republican governance and incompentent governance, America certainly has. That’s why the first Minnesota poll when they measured the electorate as 31% Republican and 34% Democrat is the flawed poll. There is absolutely no way that is the partisan breakdown of this state at this time, or was that time back in September.
While I will concede the 42%-26% spread is too favorable for us Dems, I will say that that more closely resembles the Democratic advantage we’ve gained from your complete ineptitude for how to not run a country in the ground than the 34%-31% advantage from the first poll.
October 6th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
In 2007 the Star Tribune did a random poll of registered voters in MN to determine their party affiliation (if any). They learned that with leaners 45% are Democrats, 33% are Republicans, and 22% are Independents.
Thus for the poll in question it might best to: add 3% more to registered Democrats, 7% more to registered Republicans, and subtract 5% from Independents. Since we do not know the split (it was unprofessionally not published) we cannot determine how each of these groups are voting (for example, are 90% of Democrats voting for Franken?, 70%?, etc.). My guess is that when you take into account the independents, Franken is ahead but within the MOE. That means that there REALLY has been a big shift to Franken (but not as big as the Tribune poll would have you believe).
Furthermore, voters don’t generally tune in to a campaign until 30 days out. We are at that moment and things are bad for the GOP. Thus, I’m not surprised that Franken is gaining.
My prediction is that polls in the coming weeks will validate the above poll in terms of who is ahead (Franken), but not the margin.