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PRESIDENTIAL RACE A DEAD-HEAT IN MINNESOTA, EXCEPT IN UPCOMING STAR TRIBUNE POLL
By Michael B. Brodkorb | October 4, 2008
I’m waiting for the Star Tribune to release their poll numbers on the presidential race in Minnesota. This is pure speculation, but based on a sample methodology that favors Democrats, I would expect the Star Tribune’s poll to show Senator Obama with potentially a 20-point lead over Senator McCain. The reality is that the race today is much, much closer in Minnesota.
UPDATE: As I predicted, the Star Tribune’s poll has Senator Obama with an 18-point lead over Senator McCain.
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40 Responses to “PRESIDENTIAL RACE A DEAD-HEAT IN MINNESOTA, EXCEPT IN UPCOMING STAR TRIBUNE POLL”
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October 4th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
Well you’ll have to dismiss every other poll too, except your KSTP poll.
Did you not write the same thing about Mark Kennedy and the 20 point lead the Strib had Amy Klobuchar up? Yes. You and your cohorts were full of puffery and hubris.
Just like now.
October 4th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
This seems to be a recurring pattern with the Strib. I guess they are only polling their subscribers. Each election the Strib comes out with an extreme outlier poll 3 to 4 weeks before the election. When the election is held and shows how far off the newspaper was, their reaction is a Gilda Radner “Never mind”.
October 4th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Did they mention the party breakdown of the sample size anywhere in their article?
October 4th, 2008 at 8:50 pm
The internal data on today’s Strib poll is so outlandish, the paper should be embarrassed for publishing it.
I’m sure if they sampled 80 percent Democrats and 10 percent Republicans, Franken would have an even greater lead.
Be clear, that’s about how out of whack from reality the Strib’s sample was.
It’s invalid.
October 4th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
yeah, and survey USA’s sample was any better?
October 4th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
“yeah, and survey USA’s sample was any better?”
Yes, actually, it was. The USASurvey sample is a much closer reflection of actual party identification. It’s respondents were 37 percent Democrat, 30 percent Republican — consistent with nearly every other survey in recent history. Today’s Strib survey featured 42 percent Democrats and 26 percent Republicans. The results are bullshit.
But this will warm your hear Mouth: Coleman lost my vote with his support of this crap sandwich of a bail out. That awful legislation is an unprecedented and unnecessary power grab.
Need proof?
Everyone should recoil when Democrats are the lead cheerleaders of a Bush economic policy.
I’m not voting for Coleman. But I’ll tell you another thing. No self-respecting Minnesotan can vote for Al Franken. His career of peddling hate is beyond the pale. The only choice in this election is Dean Barkley.
Better take a chance on that guy, then elect known screw ups like Al Franken and Norm Coleman.
October 4th, 2008 at 9:26 pm
You’re so transparent it’s crazy. You’ve obviously already seen the numbers and they obviously show him up by like 15 points. Awesome. Thanks for the head’s up!
Chesnut, I gotcha on that one. I’m not voting for Coleman, and I’m not voting for Franken either. Barkley is just as big of a tool but doesn’t have the media coverage to prove it, so I’m leaving the entire race blank.
October 4th, 2008 at 9:33 pm
“”Each election the Strib comes out with an extreme outlier poll 3 to 4 weeks before the election. When the election is held and shows how far off the newspaper was, their reaction is a Gilda Radner “Never mindâ€.”"
Hmmm, lets look at 2006:
Star Tribune 11/05 – 11/06 2006
747 LV
34% 55% 7% AKlo +21.0
Star Tribune 10/06 – 10/11 2006
818 LV
34% 55% 5% AKlo +21.0
ACTUAL RESULT
Amy Klobuchar
1,278,849
58.1%
Mark Kennedy
835,653
37.9%
==
Yeap, way off, not even close. ‘never mind’
October 4th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
Flash,
What did the poll internals look like for the Klobuchar/Kennedy race?
You’re right that that poll was correct. But after 10 years of everyone knowing the Minnesota Poll was bullshit, they fired the moron who conducted it. The Kennedy/Klobuchar poll was the first to by anywhere near correct.
October 4th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
42-26 party ID and they still printed the results? Anyone worth their beans would have thrown it away and resampled. Not the Star Tribune! They go forward with their fake news.
And they wonder why their product is in the tank.
October 4th, 2008 at 9:57 pm
The internals for this poll are so out of whack that the Strib should have known the results are bullshit. It doesn’t pass the smell test, but it serves their political agenda… so they ran with it.
Still, Coleman is a lost cause in my book. He should be embarrassed for his vote for the bailout bill. Every politician that supported it should be. What a disgrace.
I would like to see all Republicans abandon Coleman and vote for Barkley. I’d also like to see all Democrats abandon Franken.
We can unify around somebody who doesn’t have the track record of divisiveness and stupidity of those two.
… and I swear, if someone runs another version of the same stupid fucking ad about Franken’s tax cheating or his history of peddling hate, I’m going to throw up. The ads are true, but if there’s anyone out there who hasn’t gotten that point by now, they’re not worth talking to.
Next!
October 4th, 2008 at 10:36 pm
Yeah, as a principled conservative I’m having a tough time right now pulling the Coleman lever:( I mean $700 Billion………and now Schwarzeneeger wants $7Billion for his state???
Whatever happened to the day when Republicans acted like Republicans???
At least I live in Bachmann Country:)
October 4th, 2008 at 10:36 pm
Yeah, as a principled conservative I’m having a tough time right now pulling the Coleman lever:( I mean $700 Billion………and now Schwarzeneeger wants $7Billion for his state???
Whatever happened to the day when Republicans acted like Republicans???
At least I live in Bachmann Country:)
October 4th, 2008 at 11:11 pm
norm is a moderate conservative, not a dyed in the red conservative. the choice is a moderate conservative, pro-life vs. ultra liberal pro-abortion, anti-catholic, anti feminist, anti-employee.
it is not hard for me to pull the lever for norm.
October 4th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
TheGipper…totally agree. As a true conservative, I feel out in the wilderness with the big spending Republicans. But…..So if you sit home and crazy Al wins, how does that make the stituation better? Wouldn’t it be worse. If Barry Obama wins, and then gets two left wing supreme court justices in, then we will have all three branches of the gov’t controled by people who think the 60’s were really far out.
October 4th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
“What did the poll internals look like for the Klobuchar/Kennedy race? ”
I’m curious, too, and trying to dig them up. Maybe MDE has ‘em?
October 4th, 2008 at 11:16 pm
ansel, I really really hate Norm’s negative anti-Al commercials. If he wants to go negative, he should hammer on crazy Al’s anti-Christian/anti-Catholic bigotry. One of crazy Al’s biggest supporters (including financial support) is bill Maher. Bill Maher is a vicious anti-Christian bigot. Why is Norm not pointing this out? Imagine if David Duke was support Dean Barkely. Evey media outlet in the state would be reporting that.
October 4th, 2008 at 11:18 pm
I hear all the principled conservatives angst on this-but Paul Ryan and Tom Coburn also voted for it! Judd Gregg negotiated ir.
FOX did a great special on this issue tonite-laid the blame right at the feet of Chuck Schumer and Barney Frank, and their shilling for Fannie Mae. They also noted Herbert Hoover’s principled market response in 1929-and what the result was. .
Maybe Coleman, Coburn and Ryan are better students of history than some of us. .
Please take a deep breath we cannot lose Norm Coleman in the senate. Dean Barkley please, God bless him but come on Chestnut lets be real.
. Franken @#$%^& Nasty,creepy man Haven’t we made this mistake before???? Ventura. I am going to go pray. .
October 4th, 2008 at 11:31 pm
i also saw the fox show. i am not sure how any reasonable person could vote theese congressional dems back in although am sure they will. ditto with barack.
i like sarah palin going after barack’s prior ties. although they will smear her, it will only take 1 or 2 major media sites to really investigate and then the floodgates will open much like it did with bho’s pastor.
and on bho’s pastor/church issues, bho never severed ties, just said he would no longer attend because the media was harrassing some of the more elderly members, not that he disagreed with the current pastor.
also on this church thing, when that father pflager(sp?) gave that diatribe against “whitey”, did you note that the entire congregation got up and embraced those comments when he got done?
October 4th, 2008 at 11:32 pm
“So if you sit home and crazy Al wins, how does that make the stituation better?”
Who has to sit home. Vote for Barkley. He’s someone Democrats and Republicans can unite around.
Moreover, how does sending Norm Coleman back to Washington make the situation any better? He clearly has no respect or intention of serving as a voice of conservativism… or reason for that matter.
No self-respecting Minnesotan can vote for either Franken or Coleman. It’s time to send a message that the same old shit doesn’t cut it any longer.
October 4th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
It’s a foregone conclusion that Obama will be President. It’s also a foregone conclusion that the criminals in the Democrat party are going to get the seats they need to ride roughshod over the Country.
In 2 years, we will have 10 percent unemployment and EU type socialism in the U.S.
Still, and I’m sorry Dave, I can’t with good conscience vote for Norm Coleman. Not after his enthusiastic support for that goddam bailout bill. He’s been an ineffective voice for conservative issues. I’d rather have no voice, than that sorry excuse.
His support for the Democrats bailout bill is the icing on the cake. Again, need proof that that bill is ill-advised? Look to the fact that Democrats rallied behind a Bush policy.
I’ve been a staunch Coleman supporter for a very long time. No more.
October 4th, 2008 at 11:41 pm
chestnut,
not sure what i see in barkley? he is an unemployed lawyer working as a bus driver, although i would say that is a positive. he ran twice before for the senate and got 5% and 7% respectively. if he was that great of a candidate would he not have received more votes in the last two tries?
October 4th, 2008 at 11:44 pm
“If Barry Obama wins, and then gets two left wing supreme court justices in…”
Yeah, so what. Norm has shown no leadership on even getting the Bush Administration’s highly qualified picks on the bench.
What on earth makes you think Norm Coleman will be the one to stand up and object to whatever extremists the Obama administration puts on the bench.
October 4th, 2008 at 11:49 pm
dean barkley was an initial supporter of this bailout bill:
“Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley, who practiced real estate law and once owned a mortgage brokerage firm, said that he would hold his nose and reluctantly vote for the bailout. “I just hope it doesn’t become a Christmas tree,†he said”… star tribune, 9/23/08.
He later changed his tune–can he have it both ways? i guess so if you don’t really have to vote.
October 4th, 2008 at 11:51 pm
Ansel,
Bottom line is he’s better qualified than either Franken or Coleman at this point.
I don’t agree with a lot of Barkley’s positions. But I don’t believe Coleman is truthfully going to represent the ones I agree with, and Franken is stark, raving mad… and wrong on every issue.
I guess I figure that since none of these guys is going to represent what’s important to me, I might as well vote for the guy who hasn’t let me down yet.
October 4th, 2008 at 11:53 pm
from another perspective of this poll showing coleman getting only 34%, almost without exception every incumbent wins approximately the same amount of the vote as his favorability ratings. norm has been consisently in the 43-47% favorability ratings for all of this year; thus, i think he will get somewhere in that area that % of the vote. the issue will then be can franken get, say 45%, of the vote and barkley the difference? doubtful since franken has never been able to poll above the 40-42% and i would suggest that will probably go down as more voters go for barkley, much like chestnut is intending to do.
October 4th, 2008 at 11:54 pm
Here’s a question: Who’s going to run against Klobuchar in 2012?
Pawlenty?
October 4th, 2008 at 11:57 pm
I’m pretty pissed off at Coleman right now ansel. I’m pissed at everyone who voted for that piece of crap.
Coleman’s got 4 weeks to tell me why I should vote for him. And more of this “Franken is a tax cheat and a hate-monger” crap isn’t enough.
Coleman’s in the race of his life. And it’s high time he quits fucking around and start acting like it.
October 4th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
if mde is correct, pawlenty will run for a third term in 2010. most likely get elected since 2010 the trend will favor the out-of-power gop in washington so voters will be pissed at the dems.
personally i would like to see john kline or bachman go after klobuchar, but only if they really have a decent chance of winning. if klobuchar is wildly popular, then i would go with pawlenty because if he loses gop still has governship.
October 5th, 2008 at 12:07 am
making the assumption bho wins the presidency, i am not that concerned other than his appointing lib judges.
the economy is going to be the overriding concern for all of bho’s first term and if the misery index goes up which i think it will during bho’s first term, he is susceptible to a challenge from both within dems and then obviously gop. i see the economy going absolutely no place in next two years and probably not within next 5 years. much of it not bho’s fault, but he will get blamed just like any other president. jimmy carter took over from ford with a misery index of, i think 18%, but he did not improve it at all and left office when it was around 20%. the misery index at the end of bush’s term will probably be around 10%, but i see nothing but unemployment and inflation going up.
this being the case, voters will turn to gop in 2010 and at least it will give the gop enough senate seats to stop everything if they want to.
October 5th, 2008 at 12:12 am
All I know is the GOP better find its voice. I’m tired of watching Republicans pull punches against the outrageous lies Democrats tell and against their outrageous proposals.
Who the hell do Republicans think is going to call these lying, crooked Democrats on their shit? Do they think the press is going to investigate? We have an EEOC candidate because the press isn’t interested in it’s job.
Coleman’s got 4 weeks to get me to change my mind. What’s worse, a Republican who can’t effectively voice Republican values? Or pissing in the wind with a guy like Dean Barkley… or a psychopath like Al Franken for that matter.
October 5th, 2008 at 12:15 am
All I know is the GOP better find its voice. I’m tired of watching Republicans pull punches against the outrageous lies Democrats tell and against their outrageous proposals.
Who the hell do Republicans think is going to call these lying, crooked Democrats on their shit? Do they think the press is going to investigate? We have an EEOC candidate because the press isn’t interested in it’s job.
Coleman’s got 4 weeks to get me to change my mind. What’s worse, a Republican who can’t effectively voice Republican values? Or pissing in the wind with a guy like Dean Barkley… or a psychopath like Al Franken for that matter.
October 5th, 2008 at 12:17 am
If Obama wins then every country will have Nukes. That is what Liberals want.
October 5th, 2008 at 7:34 am
Let’s get through this race before we see what the political landscape will look at two election cycles from now. After this, we still have to get through the 2010 cycle before we start looking at who is running against AKlo. It’s a little premature to discuss contenders when we are a ways away from that.
October 5th, 2008 at 8:45 am
Flash:
Forgive me, but didn’t the same Minnesota Poll predict Governor Hatch and Governor Humphrey?
Your comment is saying that because the Vikings played great week three and defeated Carolina that they are a good team this year and Brad Childress is a coach that ranks with the Hall Of Fame Bud Grant.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
October 5th, 2008 at 8:49 am
Folks:
If you vote for Dean Barkley you’re going to get one of two things:
You will get Al Franken who will vote for the higher taxes that Norm won’t vote for, you will get Al Franken who will be very happy to help nationalize health care (remember what these people have done to the housing market and housing industry). If Franken gets elected in 2008 especially with your vote long before 2014 you will be asking why did I vote for Franken.
You might not like Coleman on every issue, but with a fillibuster maybe being the only hope to try to break an Obama agenda if elected (I still think Mccain can turn this around) every vote the Democrats get to help them to get to 60 they want.
Walter Hanson
Minneapolis, MN
October 5th, 2008 at 10:24 am
“You might not like Coleman on every issue, but with a filibuster maybe being the only hope to try to break an Obama agenda if elected (I still think Mccain can turn this around) every vote the Democrats get to help them to get to 60 they want.”
Walter, I respect most of your opinions. But what makes you think Norm Coleman would demonstrate this type of leadership, or this type of intestinal fortitude.
Why should Coleman be the Senator from Minnesota who refuses to show conservative leadership?
Can’t we do better than this?
October 5th, 2008 at 11:25 am
SOmeon riun the numbers using Rasmussen Nation weighting:
“”New Rasmussen Reports Party Weighting Targets: 39.3% Democrat 33.3% Republican”"
Walter, Yes, the MNPoll was favoring Hatch big a month out and by a little a few days out:
MN Star-Tribune 10/06 – 10/11 818 LV
37 46 4 Hatch +9.0
Star Tribune 11/05 – 11/06 747 LV
41 44 7 Hatch +3.0
October 5th, 2008 at 11:34 am
send both of these carpetbaggers back to Brooklyn where they came from. I’ll guarantee that whichever one loses, he’ll be out of here before the sun goes down. Barkley’s not much but at least he’s a Minnesotan.
October 5th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Folks
Check the disclaimer on the StarTribune poll:
“No one was sexually harrassed in the making of this poll. We hope to print the results of this poll before we go belly up.”