Comments on: GOLNIK BLASTS STAR TRIBUNE POLL: “CLEARLY THIS POLL IS OUT OF WHACK…”

By: Ryan

Ryan — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 17:57:10 +0000

I’m a Democrat. I’m not convinced by either the SUSA or the Star Tribune poll regarding the Senate race. My gut tells me that the race is currently even, with Coleman still the odds-on favorite to win.

But I must point out that recent facts don’t line up with the argument that the Star Tribune poll is “worthless,” “garbage,” or “crap”:

2006 Klobuchar/Kennedy
10/11 55-34
11/06 55-34
Final 58-38

2004 Kerry/Bush
10/11 48-43
10/29 49-41
Final 51-48

Did it get Pawlenty/Hatch wrong in 2006? Yes. But so did virtually every other poll after 10/1. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/governor/mn/minnesota_governor_race-57.html.

The arguable point is the D-R internal breakdown. The recent SUSA showed it 34-31. The Star Tribune has it 42-26. I like the comparison above to the 2006 internals (40-35), which – correctly – was the worst Republican atmosphere since Watergate. But this year is even worse, which makes 42% DFL seem plausible. And it wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of soft Republicans who could vote DFL this year are feeling a combination of turned off by Franken and okay with Barkley. That could hurt Coleman.

By: PlymouthDem

PlymouthDem — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 20:01:15 +0000

Team Coleman is in panic mode. They don’t even try to spin that the KSTP poll is accurate any more and are desperately trying to claim this race is within a few points.

Either way, this poll is a disaster for Coleman. Almost no one but junkies see the other polls (including the KSTP poll since no one watching that piece of shit station). People around Minnesota DO see the STRIB, and, they now see Franken as not only legitimate, but, winning. This changes leaners perception.

By: Chestnut

Chestnut — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 19:04:18 +0000

“Actually, the people identify themselves as independents has grown quite a bit”

You wouldn’t guess that by looking at the exceptionally biased sample of this Strib poll.

“and people identifying themselves as Republicans has dropped”

Not to 25 percent, it hasn’t.

Ziggy has again proven to be a pile of Ziggy dog shit.

By: jc

jc — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 17:41:16 +0000

Based on the all the past Survey USA polls, which you appear to hold in high esteem, Democrats make up 37% of likely voters, and Republicans make up 29%. If you believe the last Survey USA poll, then Franken is only getting 65% of Democrats, which means the oversampling of Democrats translates into a 5% x 65% = 3.25% boost in the poll. Coleman had 83% of Republicans in the Survey USA, so that’s -3% x 83% = -2.49%. So, based on your sampling argument, that’s a 5.75 point swing towards Franken. That doesn’t explain away his lead in the poll.

By: Deep Thoughts

Deep Thoughts — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 17:38:05 +0000

I think some Democrats have been generous enough to acknowledge that the Strib poll is crap. The SurveyUSA one is a bit optimistic as well. I’d say Obama is probably up 2 to 3 points right now. But make no mistake about it, outside of Hennepin and Ramsey county this dude is going to get absolutely creamed.

By: Jerry Jonez

Jerry Jonez — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 17:09:13 +0000

I’ve heard from some relative up in the Range that Obama is running radio ads there. This tells me that the Obama campaign is nervous about this part of Minnesota. Also, KSTP did a story the other night that said Obama is buying ads in the Twin Cities — if this were an 18 (or even 10) point margin, there’s no way the Obama camp would be buying radio or tv ads.

By: Cornelius

Cornelius — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 17:07:38 +0000

Survey USA did a pretty good job of calling the 2006 races.

Last Survey USA poll in Nov. 2006 had Hatch and Pawlenty at 45-45. Pawlenty won, 47-46.

This same Survey USA poll had Klobuchar over Kennedy by 56-40 and Klobuchar won 58-38.

The Party ID in that 2006 Survey USA poll was 40 for the DFL, 35 for the GOP, and 21 for Independents. And remember this was during the worst political enviroment for the GOP since Watergate.

There is no way the DFL has more than a 5-7 point advantage in Minnesota.

By: Margaret

Margaret — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 16:09:12 +0000

The key thing will turnout in general. I don’t know that any poll has a good model of that, given MN’s flexible voter registration. On top of that, for this cycle, the data must be extremely poor given the lower land line usage in key demographics, call screening and even more movement of the population than usual in certain areas with the foreclosure crisis. They can weight stuff all they want but at the end of the day, all they have is a bunch of guesses.

By: DJZ

DJZ — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 15:44:44 +0000

Actually, the people identify themselves as independents has grown quite a bit and people identifying themselves as Republicans has dropped, thanks to the President, war in Iraq and the economy.

Your rats are jumping off the ship. Face it.

I’m shocked, simply shocked that Golnik is blasting a poll that’s not good for his pockets.

By: Average Joe

Average Joe — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 15:37:46 +0000

Last week I conducted my own poll. I called 89 Democrats, 10 Independents and 1 Republican.

The results were:

92% are for Obama
8% for McCain

My poll has the same validity as the Star Tribune’s manufactured “poll”.

By: Chestnut

Chestnut — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 15:26:55 +0000

The Strib poll is worthless. Garbage in, garbage out. The Strib should be embarrassed for running with this crap.

By: Jeff Rosenberg

Jeff Rosenberg — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 15:23:19 +0000

Hilarious.

After the SurveyUSA poll came out, I wrote: “this one looks a lot like an outlier, based on the other polls that have come out recently.” MDE readers charitably suggested I “spend a week in detox.”

Now, Michael is outraged at the equally-ridiculous Star Tribune poll.

Look, both of these polls were way out of whack; the truth is probably right in the middle. If I can admit that the Strib poll was ridiculous, can you admit the SurveyUSA poll was ridiculous?