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538′S NATE SILVER: THE FORMER DAILY KOS CONTRIBUTOR #1

By Michael B. Brodkorb | November 21, 2008

A lot of liberal bloggers, including the so-called “independent” media in Minnesota, are gushing about the analysis from FiveThirtyEight’s wunderkind Nate Silver.

You got to hand it to the guy, as he’s sure made a name for himself this year.  But he’s more than just your average number-cruncher. Silver, for better or worse (I say worse), is a former Daily Kos contributor who’s been star struck by President-elect Obama.

“His approach to politics is similar—he’s an engaged fan. He unapologetically roots for Obama. One of his early posts as a contributor to Daily Kos, titled ‘I Got Dinner With Barack Obama,’ recounts with gee-whiz wonder a chance sighting of Obama during Silver’s birthday outing at a Mexican restaurant. (‘At first I was pissed off with my friend for not doing more to alert me,’ he wrote, ‘but if I’d had more advance warning, I’d probably have done something stupid like scream ‘Fired up!,’ which would have been embarrassing in retrospect.’) But he doesn’t try to pummel you with numbers to prove his argument, like a typical hot-blooded partisan. Instead, on his site, he exhibits the cool confidence of someone who’s simply used to knowing his stuff better than anyone else in the room.” Source: New York Magazine, http://nymag.com/news/features/51170/index3.html

And these highly educated guesses? This self-professed Obama fan uses his intuition as a factor in making these predictions.

“How do you design your model?

A lot is based on intuition. We look at how a pollster has done in the past, whether a state leans left or right, who lives there, how things usually change leading up to the election. There’s no one principle, except to be meticulous and thoughtful.” Source: Newsweek, November 17, 2008

So, he’s a liberal super genius you say. Well, perhaps a more appropriate description would be a liberal blogger who isn’t afraid to hedge his bets again and again.

I’ll have more on Silver later today, so please check back to Minnesota Democrats Exposed for more information on this developing story.

Tags:

Topics: Uncategorized | 25 Comments »

25 Responses to “538′S NATE SILVER: THE FORMER DAILY KOS CONTRIBUTOR #1”

  1. Aaron Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 10:49 AM

    Michael B. Brodkorb tries to discredit NATE SILVER, the guy who was behind the most accurate predictions this election cycle. Awesome!!!

    I can’t wait to read more information on your developing story! You’re a true maverick, Michael B. Brodkorb.

  2. Swiftee Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 11:10 AM

    That asshat received a new orafice when he tried to match wits recently with http://www.howobamagotelected.com/“>John Ziegler.

  3. Swiftee Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 11:16 AM

    Say Aaron? What’s Ashtray Madia up to these days?

    HAHAHAaa!

  4. justin Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 11:26 AM

    What “developing story?” This is publicly available information that has been known by anyone paying attention for a while. Mr. Silver even discusses it from time to time.

    He’s also been spot on in his predictions this cycle. Which are backed up by real fancy math. I guess statistical modeling has a liberal bias now too, huh?

  5. Jeff Rosenberg Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 11:32 AM

    Wow. That settles it. I’m now convinced Franken is going to win this thing. How else to explain the past month’s hysteria on this blog?

    Of course, Michael is right: information based on hard data becomes irrelevant if its source has a documented political leaning. I can only assume he will next declare his own blog irrelevant.

  6. hiram Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 11:38 AM

    What seems to me to be going on here is that people are searching to find problems in a process that seems to be going amazingly well.

  7. 538′S NATE SILVER: THE FOMER DAILY KOS CONTRIBUTOR #1 Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 11:48 AM

    [...] post by WP-AutoBlog Import var AdBrite_Title_Color = ’0000FF’; var AdBrite_Text_Color = ’000000′; var [...]

  8. Jeff Rosenberg Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 11:51 AM

    But hiram, there ARE major problems. The problem is that reality is in the tank for Barack Obama and Al Franken.

  9. Leroy Jenkins Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 12:06 PM

    Q: Were his predictions accurate?
    A: Yes.

    It would be easier to discredit him if his numbers weren’t dead on, but they were. So, while you may enjoy rehashing a story you heard a week ago on Rush, no one believes that bias plays any role in his statistical analysis.

  10. Leroy Jenkins Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 12:08 PM

    p.s. It is great that on a site that rails against the guy you call “Porn-o-Rama” that you allow posts like number 6 to remain, which without any warning, goes directly to pictures of naked women.

  11. Swiftee Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 12:20 PM

    “…which without any warning, goes directly to pictures of naked women.”

    Gee, that must have been horrible for you Leeroy! Better get yourself over to Cheeto boy’s hideout and purge that unpleasant visual memory in his vast picture catalog of male genitalia.

  12. Jeff Rosenberg Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 12:32 PM

    Leroy, in fairness, sometimes the spam filter just doesn’t work, and you’re not at the computer to deal with it.

  13. walter hanson Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 12:50 PM

    wow:

    I just looked at those day two numbers and Franken has challenged more ballots than Coleman.

    furthermore my thought when I heard of the challenge of the obvious Coleman vote was that Franken was trying to keep Coleman’s offical votes down to create the impression that he was in the lead. In part maybe to help him win his ballot challenge.

    It seems like everything he wrote was the truth except the negative things apply to Franken not Coleman especially since FRANKEN (at least as of last night) had challenged more ballots than Coleman!

    Maybe it’s easy to be accurate when you guessing your dreams which came true on election day but technically I thought there were a lot of places that were predicting an Obama win, seven senate gains, and about 20 house seat gains so Aron there’s no need to think this guy is god.

    Especially when Franken has challenged more votes than Coleman!

    Walter Hanson
    Minneapoolis, MN
    Walter Hanson

  14. Pete F Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 12:55 PM

    From I have heard about “Leroy” he is very opposed to naked women. Or women in general…

  15. Leroy Jenkins Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 1:12 PM

    Amazing how an article in playboy is bad, but a LINK to nudity from a website that chastised said article is fine.

    Got to love the malleable ethics of republicans.

  16. Pete F Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 1:47 PM

    See… An article in Playboy wrote by a US Senate candidate. A link on this blog put there by some redneck (don’t get me wrong – rednecks are good!).

    Only in Leroy’s world is that equal.

    No go back to Playgirl “Leroy”.

  17. Swiftee Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 2:19 PM

    Say, Leroy? Have you have been irreparibly damaged by those pictures of nekkid women?

    Poor, little wombat.

  18. Andrew Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 6:39 PM

    First off, the homophobic remarks are extremely immature and well, offensive. But alas, you’re the party where homophobes and racists reside so not too surprising.

    And this post is absolutely ridiculous. Nate Silver’s shit is pretty good. And politics is all intuition, the American public are entirely too hard to read to accurately predict elections, it’s statistics and facts paired with a bit of intuition. Good example of this, all those polls saying Obama is only going to win MN by 2%. Pretty sure all of our intuition said otherwise, and who was right?

  19. walter hanson Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 9:01 PM

    Hey Andrew:

    * Franken has challenged more votes than Coleman. He has that wrong!

    * Franken is doing this strategy to create the impression he’s the leader instead of Coleman!

    This guy is very stupid in this case!

    Walter Hanson

  20. Swiftee Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 9:32 PM

    Say Andrew?

    If you’re looking for a website that is more buggering oriented, I suggest you schlep your worthless, offended ass on over to “MNBLUE”…ask for Cheeto boy.

    Tell him Leeeroy sent ya.

    HAHAHAHAHAAAaaaa!

  21. Pete F Says:
    November 21st, 2008 at 9:48 PM

    Andrew, if you don’t like it go somewhere else. Leroy is a big boy and can take care of himself. Hey, you aren’t his old roommate are you?

  22. 538′S NATE SILVER: THE FOMER DAILY KOS CONTRIBUTOR #2 | Minnesota Democrats Exposed Says:
    November 22nd, 2008 at 12:30 PM

    [...] I noted in part #1 of my posts, numerous liberal bloggers, including the so-called “independent” media in Minnesota, are [...]

  23. 538′S NATE SILVER: THE FOMER DAILY KOS CONTRIBUTOR #1 & 2 | Minnesota Democrats Exposed Says:
    November 24th, 2008 at 9:37 AM

    [...] here and here for my posts exposing the background of FiveThirtyEight’s wunderkind Nate [...]

  24. Matthew Says:
    November 24th, 2008 at 9:44 PM

    walter hanson keeps pointing to Silver’s post regarding Coleman challenging more ballots then Franken as a sign that he is bias. The fact is that it was true that Coleman had challenged more ballots at the time Silver posted his comments. This post below shows Silver changing his view when the facts change. Wow, fact based blogging what a concept.

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/state-pegs-coleman-lead-at-172-votes.html

  25. 538′S NATE SILVER CHANGES TUNE ON RECOUNT; COLEMAN NOW FAVORED | Minnesota Democrats Exposed Says:
    December 1st, 2008 at 10:09 AM

    [...] here and here to read my posts exposing Silver’s background and [...]

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