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SD26: FURTHER ANALYSIS

By Luke Hellier | January 27, 2010

Tuesday saw a decisive victory for Republicans in Senate District 26.  Over the weekend, Clare Kennedy of the Owatonna People’s Press did her best to spin that Senate District 26 was on the verge of turning blue.

Kennedy wrote:

…In 2006, things began to shift again, not just in District 26, but throughout the nation as voters turned against the Republican Party. Day felt it in his own district — and his own race — as well. Although he retained his seat in the Minnesota Senate, his margin of victory was much less. In a rematch of the 2002 District 26 Senate race, Day took 55 percent of the vote to Eller’s 45 percent.

“It went from east coast to west coast: Get these Republicans out of there!” Day said. “I went down five or six points in my own district and across the whole state it went that way. It was just this wave.”

The Republican Party lost six state senators that year, Day said.

On a national level, Minnesota Democrats soon made headway in the region as well. In 2006 Democratic Congressman Tim Walz defeated Republican incumbent Gil Gutknecht.

In 2008, the Democrats gained even more ground in District 26 after Ruth announced she was retiring from politics. That November, Ruth’s Republican heir apparent lost to the DFL candidate. Owatonna High School teacher Kory Kath routed Republican Tom Kuntz with a 57 percent to 43 percent victory.

That year, Democrats running for re-election solidified their positions. Fritz was elected to her third term by a comfortable margin and Walz won a lopsided victory against his Republican competitor, Dr. Brian Davis  (Source Owatonna People’s Press 1/23/10).”

Needless to say, Kennedy’s analysis that Senate District 26 could potentially become solidly DFL had some merit.

There are three things to consider when evaluating this district.  The first is which party the other elected representatives are members, the power of incumbency, and finally how much energy was put into the race.

First, both state representatives, Patti Fritz and Kory Kath, are recently elected and members of the DFL.  Fritz is a three term incumbent and Kath is in his first term in Saint Paul.

Second, Minnesota is known to support incumbents in the state legislature to almost no end. Take for instance Mary Ellen Otremba.

Otremba represents an extremely conservative district.  Rep. Otremba hails from 11B.  In the 2008 election 11B went 55% for John McCain and 47% for Norm Coleman.  Even though the district has a clear Republican tilt, Otremba was reelected with 52%.

Another example is that of Larry Hosch.  Rep. Hosch represents 14B which includes rural areas around St. Cloud.  In 2008 again, McCain won 14B with 55% of the vote while Hosch cruised to victory with 67% of the vote.

Thus it should be no surprise that Dick Day had been elected so many times.

Thirdly, as noted before, following Tuesday’s results many democrats were already spinning that this loss was a non-factor.

If this race was ever seen not to be winnable in the eyes of the DFL they would have never dispatched Al Franken, Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Tarryl Clark, RT Rybak, and others to work the ground and phones for Jason Engbrecht.

Engbrecht, the DFL candidate, worked tirelessly to persuade voters to cast their ballot for him but he came up short.  Engbrecht only captured four precincts.

Tuesday was a referendum on the policies of the DFL and voters rejected the idea of raising taxes and increased spending for job creation and fiscal responsibility.

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